Blog About the Future

May 13, 2013—Titled “Future Theory” (http://ftforward.blogspot.com), this recently released blog focuses on studying pop culture, trends, and history to generate possible occurrences for the next fifty years.  It frequently uses examples as evidence for the theories, such as music’s top ten hits for the last five decades or current issues.  One post detailed the potential changeover for the Olympics, in which wrestling became viable for replacement, and noted the histories of each sport threatening to take its position.  Also proposed was a short list of suggestions on what other sports may sneak their way in before 2063 and why—or why not.  As a whole, the content of the posts varies widely.  Such is intended to include as many facets of the future as possible.

The author, Ashley “Ash” Monks, admits to being an avid consumer and writer of science fiction, but announces on her “about” page that her blog strives to do the opposite.  She doesn’t predict far-fetched ideas good for writing stories.  She wants concepts with concrete evidence behind them.  As part of the Honors Program at Endicott College, she has been learning about culture studies and applying that knowledge to her work.  Occasionally, terms appropriate of academic essays are used and the articles can be dense in terms of information, but all is usually explained and made easier to read.  These lessons on culture were what originally gave her the inspiration for Future Theory.  In accordance, the first person she interviewed for the blog was one of her professors for the seminar, who helped explain the different methods of cultural examination she would be implementing.

The blog is aimed at an audience interested in pop culture and logic puzzles.  It takes an educational approach to a field seemingly dominated by creativity.  If interested, “Future Theory” can be found at http://ftforward.blogspot.com.

The Path of Fashion

Pop culture, in a way, is what happens when we don’t know what else to do with ourselves.  The further away we move from being survivalists, relying on basic needs, the more we find ourselves creating extra focuses.  We prioritize differently.  Long ago, I doubt we much cared what we wore so long as it kept us warm.  Today, we’re almost the opposite.  (Once, I saw a girl wearing a miniskirt while there was still snow on the ground.)  We don’t wear what’s functional so much as we wear what’s fashionable.  Why?  We can afford that luxury.  It was one of those things we decided to expand upon after we upgraded from simply keeping warm.  It’s blossomed  in the last few decades, especially.

1960s

·         Miniskirt

·         Bell-bottom jeans

·         Tie-dyed shirt

1970s

·         Polyester/tight clothing

·         Flamboyant colors

·         Punk (anti-fashion)

1980s

·         Power suit

·         Designer brands

1990s

·         Comfy clothes

·         Black and toned-down colors

·         Grunge (messy/greasy)

2000s

·         Primarily retro 80s

·         Revamped vintage

·         Mash-up of other decades

·         Leggings

2010s

·         Floral patterns

·         Colors

·         Skinny jeans

·         Loose shirts

.         Yoga pants

The funny thing is that there’s very little general trend.  Yes, there’s a slow progression of acceptance toward increased showings of skin, but other than that?  The only big, key influences in the fashion world seem to be the invention of new materials, the availability of production, and social acceptance.  When those three things don’t change much, we go back to what we were doing before, hence the “retro.”

One of the largest aspects we have capitalized on, though, is personal style.  The fashion industry continues to broaden, offering more options, and so people find a specific style they like.  Punk is one of the best examples of this.  By being against the popular trend, it created a new trend, and widened the field.  Today, we still have punk, but we also have a million other categories: preppy, gangsta’, goth, lazy, dressy, hipster, casual, classic, etc.  In a way, it feels like everything is in style all at once.  Consider blue jeans, for example.  It used to be that there was one fit, just in different sizes.  That’s evolved to a number of fits for the wide range of figures people come in.  Theoretically, the future will expand on this further.  In 50 years, half of our clothes may be custom-order shapes and styles.  This, mixed with the growth of personal style, may further extend online shopping until it is used more often than go-to shopping.

The counter-argument here is price.  It would cost more and be less effective to make so many different types of clothes.  After all, what can you do with what you can’t sell?  Online shopping may help with this (knowing the number of orders you need), but the point remains that variety is both difficult and expensive.  Also, people are impatient in this instant gratification society of ours, so how long are they really going to wait to have an exact fit of jeans?

The last component to address is the social sphere.  We may not want so much variety in our desire to “fit in.”  Given, girls get grouchy when someone else is wearing the same outfit they are, but there’s a general aspiration to wear a common style.  Fashion is seen as a connection.  We often subconsciously think that because someone is dressed they way we are, they are more like us.  Thus, we follow a common trend in order to connect with the larger culture around us.

The sub-reason following this is ambition to be like the celebrities.  If someone popular is dressing a certain way, we follow in their footsteps in hopes of achieving that kind of popularity.  This, like the previous concept, boils down to likableness.  It’s all about wanting attention and amiability.  Such things are basic human needs.  It’s when this need is taken advantage of that it becomes a business.

Consider one of the most wide-spread trends in American fashion: jeans.  Approximately 450 million pairs are sold in the U.S. each year.  They’re seen as a closet staple item.  What about historically, though?  As a business, they’ve had a rocky past.

The original intention for blue jeans was simply to be durable for manual labor.  This put them into popular use, which turned them into a trend, and they soon became related to celebrity—sort of.  You see, the stars of the day, like James Dean from Rebel Without a Cause, often represented trouble.  Mothers didn’t want their children dressing like hooligans, leading to a decrease in the purchase of blue jeans.

In response, denim manufacturers gathered together to solve the problem.  They hired a PR firm, who convinced fashion designers to incorporate more denim.  The PR firm then followed the progress, making sure that the second denim revolution was being well-covered.  The “bad boy” stereotype remained, though.  Eventually, the PR firm decided that the best solution was to chip at that core issue, countering the “bad boy” image with a “good boy” image.  With some pushing and pulling, the PR firm guided the denim companies to donate all-denim uniforms to the Peace Corps.  By the early 1960s, denim was back in business and as popular as ever.

In the end, fashion is a constant push and pull.  We’re struggling between the needs of several different parties.  One wants to make money, another wants to keep us compatible, and the third wants expression.  The first and the last would flounder in a uniform, stagnant style.  In some ways, it’s better for us to be so diverse.  In others, we turn against each other and judge prematurely.  That said, I seriously question the old future-movie fashion stereotype of jumpsuits/Jetsons style (notably, The Jetsons are based in 2062), which would be a move against diversity.  I think the best thing to say, at this point, is that fashion is both strange and marginally unpredictable in the long run.  I’ll leave it at that.

Future Expectations

We have our movies and our books filled with technology so advanced, it looks like magic.  We have our theories about government and culture.  We have creativity—but what are people actually expecting?  Additionally, what do they want?

Kelly Maher, who hopes to become a filmmaker after she graduates from college, remarks on the importance of physical activity.

Kelly: I guess it would be nice to see kids care about exercising instead of being forced into it in gym because it’s required so you have to.  Or we’re just going to make you run a mile because we have to.  Because maybe if we could make kids care about it more, they would want to go out and play again and play with each other, get all those social skills that maybe we’ve been losing over the years.

Her friend, Jen Cave, who was present at the time, enthusiastically added a few activities she’d like to see enforced.

Jen: I want to try archery!  Yeah, actually, that’s something I want to see is archery….I want to see that become a bigger thing.  Like you could do it at college.  They could have an archery team or something.  That would be cool.

As it is, physical activity is making a slow transition from outdoors and actual to indoors and virtual.  The invention of the Wii brought about a whole wave of simulated athletics from tennis to boxing.  Are more diverse and interesting activities, such as archery, a way to get kids out…or will we just end up digitizing everything?

The impact of technology on culture is a long-standing fear.  From the “Big Brother” of George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four to the hostile robot network of the movie I, Robot, humankind exemplifies this particular fear.  Unsurprisingly, it was mentioned when I asked about thoughts on the future.

Photographer Alex Clarke, who is never seen anywhere without his camera-enabled smart phone, was the first one to specifically mention the rise of technology and its potentially devastating impact.

Alex: One thing I do see possibly happening is humankind being consumed by technology.  And just like, right now, how technology is improving itself constantly and it’s getting more involved in people’s lives and it just seems like everyday people are always looking at their smart phones and always having to check facebook, instagram, tumblr—every single little application to be up to date with their friend when, in real life, they’ve really got nothing to say other than to comment what happened on facebook or on tumblr.

I see us possibly—see technology being integrated into the human body.  That’s something I find very scary because it just seems like it’s becoming more and more important in our daily lives.  And what I would hope to see is that it doesn’t become like that and that we slow down on that and start to realize what’s going on and, maybe, instead of get ahead of ourselves with technology, but more slowed down and kind of realize what’s happening and get more into social in real life instead of, say, a mobile device.

We’re in a constant balance between the furthering of technology and the fear of it.  Although, this fear isn’t of technology itself, just the social and cultural ramifications.  Will we become more solitary?  Will we rely on fake friends?  Will we end up as fat and lazy and dependent as the crew aboard the spaceship from the animated movie Wall-E?  Those things are what we are afraid of.  We celebrate the technology itself.

iPods and iPhones and tablets were all met with breakout reactions.  “That’s cool,” people said.  “I want one.”  We’re always looking for the next big thing.  One person I interviewed in particular, Rosalie Bolender, had perhaps the most to say on this subject.  An avid lover of both art and science, Rosalie needed little cue to startup a good long list of what she’d like to see and its likeliness of occurring in the next fifty years.

Rose: Well, in about three years, there better be a hoverboard or two because 2015 and I need a hoverboard, but in realistic terms, I think hoverboards are possible, probably within the next fifty years.  I don’t know.  It’s like…I read somewhere that they have, like, electromagnetic things that can sort of simulate hovering and I know they have the magnetic trains that literally hover off the rails, so I mean, hovering itself is possible.  It’s just not open to the public for individual use.  So I’d like to see some of that.  That’d be cool.

Also, I mean, everyone’s going to say flying cars, but, like, personalized flying machines.  Probably not in the next fifty years, but still, I’d like to see it.  But it’s probably not possible.  And if it was, it’d probably be a billion, trillion dollars more expensive than it should be.  Anyways, um, what else?

I think…skyways are probably gonna happen.  Maybe.  I don’t know.  It’ll be a while.

Q: What’s a skyway?

Rose: Like a highway in the sky.

Q: But we don’t have flying cars.

Rose: Well, I mean personalized flying machines as in without a car, but I think it they made cars fly it would be pretty cool.  Although, I don’t really think they would let just anyone fly a car.  Because if you think about it, if you’re driving a car, you’re basically on a two-dimensional plane.  You have forwards, backwards, left, and right, and then all the diagonals.  But you literally can’t move up or down.  When you’re in a car that flies, um, that’s three dimensions.  That’s like every direction known to man is now possible.  And if you think about all the drunk driving accidents and junk, it’s like, are they really going to let just anyone fly a car?  It takes years to get a license to fly a plane, not even for commercial use.  It’s not an easy thing to do, so probably not flying cars.

There’ll probably be a ton of advances in medicine, though.  The life-span will probably expand.

Virtual reality.  That would be a cool thing.  Like, if they had videogames—like, I mean, yeah, we have the Wii, where you can move things on a screen, but if they created some sort of helmet where you wear it and you literally believe you are in the game.  If they created some sort of room with screens all around and you could create holograms in three dimensions.  That would be amazing.  That would be a great experience.

Or, like, interactive television, maybe?  I don’t know.  Something like that.  I think that would be cool.

It sounds like everyone has a combination of big hopes and big concerns regarding the next fifty years.  Hoverboards and flying cars were the most frequently mentioned innovations.  (Back to the Future II has probably created a heavy influence in this area.  What we didn’t succeed in already, we’re still looking forward to.)  The frequent apocalypse scares humankind is so fond of, surprisingly, were not mentioned.  While it’s fun to see in fictional media, it seems there’s a widespread doubt of it actually occurring.  In any case, it sounds like we’re in for quite the ride (hover-enabled or not.)

Predictions for the Future of Music

Using identified music trends and observations, I’ve created a theoretical musical future for the next five decades.  One crucial point to keep in mind is that music, like all other parts of our culture, can be heavily influenced by events.  (Gay rights continues to be a hot topic.  It has been slowly slipping into the music world, but has yet to breach the list.)  I can’t particularly account for those instances.  I can, however, take some educated and entertaining guesses.

2022

More synthetic sounds are beginning to appear in music as it becomes easier for individuals to create and publicly display their music, furthering need for catchy, memorable, and distinct tunes.  In this category, we also have auto-tuning, which has become fairly common.

Due to the increase of profane lyrics, songs are frequently recorded in both “clean” and “explicit” versions.

Music has adapted a strong focus towards working one’s way to the top and the idea of domination.  This is perhaps in defiance to the continuing economic crisis.

In 2012, some artists featured another artist in their song.  Here, entire bands feature with one another in a single song.  The dual-band performance sounds like a battle of the bands, but with only one meaning/story and short parts.  Popular combinations are bands of different genres with different main instruments, which sound somewhat like a revamped orchestra.

2032

Love songs will usually mention physical attributes.  Relationships are portrayed as short, intense, and, in some opinions, cheapened.

“Beat competition,” the musical style created by two opposing beats bouncing off of each other as if in a musical battle (possibly based on the feel of dual-band performances), is becoming frequent.  This creates a constantly alternating style of sound in a single song.  Songs that use this usually limit themselves to three different beats so as not to confuse their listeners as to which song it is, yet simultaneously appeal to as many people as possible.

Superfluous messages are pushed, encouraging teens to be materialistic.

At least one top hit is from a television show, either fictional or reality.

2042

“Beat competition” is out of style.  While alternating tunes are still used, there is frequently an overarching beat, which carries through most of the song.

Most songs include eight to twelve instruments.  Musical engineering has made it possible to have more instrument sounds playing with fewer band members.

At least one top song features words from more than one language.

2052

The tops songs are very upbeat, even when discussing very distressing matters.

Over half of the Top 10 originated on the internet.

“Internet bands” are common.  Members typically audition over the internet, create a group together, and practice in real-time over video chat.  Oftentimes, the first time a group will meet in person is in planning their first concert

The average lifespan of a band is two years.

An estimated 30% of songs have single-musician creators and contributors.  That is to say that they are a “one man band.”

2062

This is the “One-Hit-Wonder” time frame.  Thanks to their being such a variety of artists and such short-lived bands, the general musical landscape has few stable artists that produce more than one popular song.  60% of people, when asked, do not have a favorite band/artist.  Approximately 5% of the population keeps a favorite band for more than a month.

Fifteen-instrument songs are very popular, though very few of those instruments are played live.  Most are computer-generated.

Live concerts are scarce.  Even those tend to have between six and twelve artists/bands “performing.”  Musical performances are less of a live playing and more of an attractively designed and choreographed show wherein the titled artist/band makes a visual appearance.

Thus my theories end.  Remember that these are based on theoretical cultural movement and observed musical trends.  This material is intended for entertainment, discussion, and controversial value.  You are entitled to your own views.  However, if any of this does come true, I will definitely be raising a glass.

The Top 10 Songs Over 50 Years (1962-2012)

 

“Turn off that racket!”

We say that music has the power to define a generation, though it may just annoy the generations surrounding.  For the most part, we get used to the new styles of music presented to us.  (Otherwise, no one would be able to bear turning on the car radio.)  The shifts are slow.  Yet side by side, they’re a little shocking.  For example, listen to Bobby Vinton’s “Roses are Red,” fourth on the charts in 1962, then listen to “Payphone” by Maroon 5, featuring Wiz Khalifa, fourth on the charts in 2012.  One is crooning and smooth, a declaration of love, more like romantic poetry than anything.  The other holds to a fast, loud beat and has a message that is vindictive, mournful, and (originally) enforced with crude language.  That’s the kind of change that fifty years can bring.

Now, instead of jumping, let’s take this a bit slower.  I’ve extracted the top ten songs from each decade, starting at 1962 and ending at 2012 (to keep the lists as recent as possible), from http://www.bobborst.com.  Below each list will be popular concepts and trends based on that small sample as well as historical events that occurred in the temporal vicinity.

1962:

Position	Artist	Song Title
1	Mr. Acker Bilk	Stranger On The Shore
2	Ray Charles	I Can't Stop Loving You
3	Dee Dee Sharp	Mashed Potato Time
4	Bobby Vinton	Roses Are Red
5	David Rose	The Stripper
6	Shelley Fabares	Johnny Angel
7	Little Eva	The Loco-Motion
8	Sensations	Let Me In
9	Chubby Checker	The Twist
10	Shirelles	Soldier Boy

 

The majority of these songs are slow with more sway than slam.  Love, a common theme, is depicted in a very flowery manner, sweet and delicate.  The exceptions would be the two dance songs in the mix: “The Loco-Motion” and “The Twist.”  The latter was banned in several Catholic schools.

Surrounding historical events: NASA is founded (1958), creation of the peace symbol (1958), The Sound of Music on Broadway (1959), presidential debates are televised (1960), birth control pill is approved by the FDA (1960), Nazi leader Adolf Eichmann receives sentence of guilty for Holocaust crimes (1961), Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), Marilyn Monroe dies (1962).

1972:

Position	Artist	Song Title
1	Roberta Flack	The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face
2	Gilbert O'Sullivan	Alone Again (Naturally)
3	Don McLean	American Pie
4	Nilsson	Without You
5	Sammy Davis Jr.	Candy Man
6	Joe Tex	I Gotcha
7	Bill Withers	Lean On Me
8	Mac Davis	Baby Don't Get Hooked On Me
9	Melanie	Brand New Key
10	Wayne Newton	Daddy Don’t You Walk So Fast

 

There’s still a tendency for the softer side of sound.  A general feel-good message comes across, but sadder tunes have crept in.  Beats aren’t very pronounced.  Prolonged notes are highly valued, though less-so than the previous decade.

Surrounding historical events: the Super Bowl is introduced (1967), first African-American U.S. Supreme Court Justice—Thurgood Marshall (1967), Martin Luther King Jr. is assassinated (1968), Robert F. Kennedy is assassinated (1968), the Zodiac Killer (1968-1969), ARPANET—soon to become the Internet—is invented (1969), the first man on the Moon—Neil Armstrong (1969), Woodstock (1969), Kent State Shootings (1970), Watergate Scandal (1972).

1982:

Position	Artist	Song Title
1	Olivia Newton-John	Physical
2	Survivor	Eye Of The Tiger
3	Joan Jett and The Blackhearts	I Love Rock N' Roll
4	Paul McCartney and Stevie Wonder	Ebony And Ivory
5	J. Geils Band	Centerfold
6	Human League	Don't You Want Me
7	John Cougar	Jack And Diane
8	John Cougar	Hurts So Good
9	Steve Miller Band	Abracadabra
10	Chicago	Hard To Say I'm Sorry

 

This is one of the more shocking turns.  All of a sudden, lyrics about love turn to ones of lust.  Messages are more brazen.  Anger and regret start becoming prevalent, backed by stronger bass, louder drums, and faster beats.  The overall impression is more edgy and transgressive than the decades before.

Surrounding historical events: Elvis dies (1977), Star Wars premieres (1977), Jonestown Massacre (1978), Nobel Peace Prize for Mother Tereasa (1979), Three Mile Island nuclear accident (1979), Sony Walkman portable music player (1979), John Lennon assassinated (1980), Sandra Day O’Connor is the first woman appointed to the Supreme Court (1981), AIDS is identified (1981), personal computers (1981), Thriller by Michael Jackson (1982), Vietnam War Memorial (1982).

1992:

Position	Artist	Song Title
1	Boyz II Men	End Of The Road
2	Sir Mix A-lot	Baby Got Back (I Like Big Butts)
3	Kris Kross	Jump
4	Vanessa Williams	Save The Best For Last
5	TLC	Baby-Baby-Baby
6	Eric Clapton	Tears In Heaven
7	En Vogue	My Lovin' (You're Never Gonna Get It)
8	Red Hot Chili Peppers	Under The Bridge
9	Color Me Badd	All 4 Love
10	Jon Secada	Just Another Day

 

“Baby Got Back” is a massively womanizing song.  The degradation of a female to her body and physical attributes appears more frequently.  This continues on with the lustful trend started by the 1980s.  On the other end of the spectrum are the angst-filled songs, such as “Under the Bridge.”  Emotion is becoming increasingly raw.

As far as sound goes, there’s a greater variety in instruments (the 1990s was notable for its introduction of alternative rock).  Beats aren’t as loud as the 80s, but remain strong.  The biggest change may be the lyrics.  They’re spoken faster.  Notes, instead of being held out, are short and clipped, making the songs choppier. This may have been influenced by the increasing popularity of rap.

Surrounding historical events: Titanic remains are found (1985), Challenger space shuttle explodes (1986), Chernobyl nuclear disaster (1986), Berlin Wall falls (1989), Soviet Union collapses (1991), Operation Desert Storm (1991), Cold War ends (1992).

2002:

Position	Artist	Song Title
1	Nickelback	How You Remind Me
2	Ashanti	Foolish
3	Nelly	Hot in Here
4	Nelly feat. Kelly Rowland	Dilemma
5	The Calling	Wherever you Will Go
6	Vanessa Carlton	A Thousand Miles
7	Linkin Park	In the End
8	Fat Joe feat. Ashanti	What's Luv?
9	Usher	U Got it Bad
10	Puddle Of Mudd	Blurry

 

There’s a stark rise of the presence of bad relationships, vulgarity, sexual tones, and angst.  Usher’s song, “U Got it Bad” drops the f-bomb.  Nelly’s “Hot in Here” has the chorus “It’s getting hot in here, so take off all your clothes.”  There’s also a softer side.  “A Thousand Miles” is a song of devotion, carrying a slow, lullaby-like tune.

Oddly enough, instead of getting faster, beats seemed to slow down in this decade.  The instrumental and tone variation continues, though, as artists search for ways to make their music distinctive.

Surrounding historical events: Titanic the movie released (1997), Princess Diana’s death (1997), Y2K bug scare (1999), Columbine High School shooting (1999), ILOVEYOU computer virus deletes music and pictures off of computers (2000), Wikipedia is released (2001), September 11^th (2001), iPod (2001), Iraq invasion (2003), MySpace (2003), Web 2.0 (2004), Facebook (2004).

 

2012:

Position	Artist	Song Title
1	Gotye feat. Kimbra	Somebody That I Used To Know
2	Carly Rae Jepsen	Call Me Maybe
3	fun. feat. Janelle Monae	We Are Young
4	Maroon 5 feat. Wiz Khalifa	Payphone
5	Ellie Goulding	Lights
6	The Wanted	Glad You Came
7	Kelly Clarkson	Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)
8	Rihanna feat. Calvin Harris	We Found Love
9	Nicki Minaj	Starships
10	One Direction	What Makes You Beautiful

 

The slower beats disappear.  In fact, 2012 seemed to be all about the heavy, striking beats, more similar to the eighties than anything.  On the other hand, the lyrics are spoken fast like the 90s.  The combination creates some serious pop.  It’s all about what you can dance to.

More songs are about hooking up and breaking up.  Others focus on self-empowerment and perseverance.

Surrounding historical events: Hurricane Katrina devastates (2005), Twitter (2006), Saddam Hussein executed (2006), global economic decline (2007), iPhone (2007), iPad (2010), Osama bin Laden killed (2011), Mayan calendar ends and causes apocalypse scare (2012).

 

Through studying these, we can recognize several major trends.

1.      The degrading of love from something deep and moving to superfluous and physical.  As our culture evolves to accept more shameless concepts, so does our music.  (For example, look back and see that, two decades after the birth control pill was approved by the FDA, top songs start including more sexual undertones.)

2.      Stronger language is used, though this is limited by what the radio can air.  As such, I can’t see it progressing too far because a song’s popularity is significantly connected to how many times it plays.

3.      There is precedence in a strong beat.  2012 was especially focused on songs that could be danced to, mainly focusing around the “jump dance,” in which actual choreographic moves are substituted by hopping in place, often with the addition of hand-flailing.

4.       Lately, a lot of synthesized sounds have been added in.  The progression of time has given way to the addition of a variety of noises that would make songs and bands more memorable.

5.      Notes are held for less time.  The music, as a result, turns from serenading to punchy expression.