Predictions for the Future of Music

Using identified music trends and observations, I’ve created a theoretical musical future for the next five decades.  One crucial point to keep in mind is that music, like all other parts of our culture, can be heavily influenced by events.  (Gay rights continues to be a hot topic.  It has been slowly slipping into the music world, but has yet to breach the list.)  I can’t particularly account for those instances.  I can, however, take some educated and entertaining guesses.

2022

More synthetic sounds are beginning to appear in music as it becomes easier for individuals to create and publicly display their music, furthering need for catchy, memorable, and distinct tunes.  In this category, we also have auto-tuning, which has become fairly common.

Due to the increase of profane lyrics, songs are frequently recorded in both “clean” and “explicit” versions.

Music has adapted a strong focus towards working one’s way to the top and the idea of domination.  This is perhaps in defiance to the continuing economic crisis.

In 2012, some artists featured another artist in their song.  Here, entire bands feature with one another in a single song.  The dual-band performance sounds like a battle of the bands, but with only one meaning/story and short parts.  Popular combinations are bands of different genres with different main instruments, which sound somewhat like a revamped orchestra.

2032

Love songs will usually mention physical attributes.  Relationships are portrayed as short, intense, and, in some opinions, cheapened.

“Beat competition,” the musical style created by two opposing beats bouncing off of each other as if in a musical battle (possibly based on the feel of dual-band performances), is becoming frequent.  This creates a constantly alternating style of sound in a single song.  Songs that use this usually limit themselves to three different beats so as not to confuse their listeners as to which song it is, yet simultaneously appeal to as many people as possible.

Superfluous messages are pushed, encouraging teens to be materialistic.

At least one top hit is from a television show, either fictional or reality.

2042

“Beat competition” is out of style.  While alternating tunes are still used, there is frequently an overarching beat, which carries through most of the song.

Most songs include eight to twelve instruments.  Musical engineering has made it possible to have more instrument sounds playing with fewer band members.

At least one top song features words from more than one language.

2052

The tops songs are very upbeat, even when discussing very distressing matters.

Over half of the Top 10 originated on the internet.

“Internet bands” are common.  Members typically audition over the internet, create a group together, and practice in real-time over video chat.  Oftentimes, the first time a group will meet in person is in planning their first concert

The average lifespan of a band is two years.

An estimated 30% of songs have single-musician creators and contributors.  That is to say that they are a “one man band.”

2062

This is the “One-Hit-Wonder” time frame.  Thanks to their being such a variety of artists and such short-lived bands, the general musical landscape has few stable artists that produce more than one popular song.  60% of people, when asked, do not have a favorite band/artist.  Approximately 5% of the population keeps a favorite band for more than a month.

Fifteen-instrument songs are very popular, though very few of those instruments are played live.  Most are computer-generated.

Live concerts are scarce.  Even those tend to have between six and twelve artists/bands “performing.”  Musical performances are less of a live playing and more of an attractively designed and choreographed show wherein the titled artist/band makes a visual appearance.

Thus my theories end.  Remember that these are based on theoretical cultural movement and observed musical trends.  This material is intended for entertainment, discussion, and controversial value.  You are entitled to your own views.  However, if any of this does come true, I will definitely be raising a glass.

The Top 10 Songs Over 50 Years (1962-2012)

 

“Turn off that racket!”

We say that music has the power to define a generation, though it may just annoy the generations surrounding.  For the most part, we get used to the new styles of music presented to us.  (Otherwise, no one would be able to bear turning on the car radio.)  The shifts are slow.  Yet side by side, they’re a little shocking.  For example, listen to Bobby Vinton’s “Roses are Red,” fourth on the charts in 1962, then listen to “Payphone” by Maroon 5, featuring Wiz Khalifa, fourth on the charts in 2012.  One is crooning and smooth, a declaration of love, more like romantic poetry than anything.  The other holds to a fast, loud beat and has a message that is vindictive, mournful, and (originally) enforced with crude language.  That’s the kind of change that fifty years can bring.

Now, instead of jumping, let’s take this a bit slower.  I’ve extracted the top ten songs from each decade, starting at 1962 and ending at 2012 (to keep the lists as recent as possible), from http://www.bobborst.com.  Below each list will be popular concepts and trends based on that small sample as well as historical events that occurred in the temporal vicinity.

1962:

Position	Artist	Song Title
1	Mr. Acker Bilk	Stranger On The Shore
2	Ray Charles	I Can't Stop Loving You
3	Dee Dee Sharp	Mashed Potato Time
4	Bobby Vinton	Roses Are Red
5	David Rose	The Stripper
6	Shelley Fabares	Johnny Angel
7	Little Eva	The Loco-Motion
8	Sensations	Let Me In
9	Chubby Checker	The Twist
10	Shirelles	Soldier Boy

 

The majority of these songs are slow with more sway than slam.  Love, a common theme, is depicted in a very flowery manner, sweet and delicate.  The exceptions would be the two dance songs in the mix: “The Loco-Motion” and “The Twist.”  The latter was banned in several Catholic schools.

Surrounding historical events: NASA is founded (1958), creation of the peace symbol (1958), The Sound of Music on Broadway (1959), presidential debates are televised (1960), birth control pill is approved by the FDA (1960), Nazi leader Adolf Eichmann receives sentence of guilty for Holocaust crimes (1961), Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), Marilyn Monroe dies (1962).

1972:

Position	Artist	Song Title
1	Roberta Flack	The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face
2	Gilbert O'Sullivan	Alone Again (Naturally)
3	Don McLean	American Pie
4	Nilsson	Without You
5	Sammy Davis Jr.	Candy Man
6	Joe Tex	I Gotcha
7	Bill Withers	Lean On Me
8	Mac Davis	Baby Don't Get Hooked On Me
9	Melanie	Brand New Key
10	Wayne Newton	Daddy Don’t You Walk So Fast

 

There’s still a tendency for the softer side of sound.  A general feel-good message comes across, but sadder tunes have crept in.  Beats aren’t very pronounced.  Prolonged notes are highly valued, though less-so than the previous decade.

Surrounding historical events: the Super Bowl is introduced (1967), first African-American U.S. Supreme Court Justice—Thurgood Marshall (1967), Martin Luther King Jr. is assassinated (1968), Robert F. Kennedy is assassinated (1968), the Zodiac Killer (1968-1969), ARPANET—soon to become the Internet—is invented (1969), the first man on the Moon—Neil Armstrong (1969), Woodstock (1969), Kent State Shootings (1970), Watergate Scandal (1972).

1982:

Position	Artist	Song Title
1	Olivia Newton-John	Physical
2	Survivor	Eye Of The Tiger
3	Joan Jett and The Blackhearts	I Love Rock N' Roll
4	Paul McCartney and Stevie Wonder	Ebony And Ivory
5	J. Geils Band	Centerfold
6	Human League	Don't You Want Me
7	John Cougar	Jack And Diane
8	John Cougar	Hurts So Good
9	Steve Miller Band	Abracadabra
10	Chicago	Hard To Say I'm Sorry

 

This is one of the more shocking turns.  All of a sudden, lyrics about love turn to ones of lust.  Messages are more brazen.  Anger and regret start becoming prevalent, backed by stronger bass, louder drums, and faster beats.  The overall impression is more edgy and transgressive than the decades before.

Surrounding historical events: Elvis dies (1977), Star Wars premieres (1977), Jonestown Massacre (1978), Nobel Peace Prize for Mother Tereasa (1979), Three Mile Island nuclear accident (1979), Sony Walkman portable music player (1979), John Lennon assassinated (1980), Sandra Day O’Connor is the first woman appointed to the Supreme Court (1981), AIDS is identified (1981), personal computers (1981), Thriller by Michael Jackson (1982), Vietnam War Memorial (1982).

1992:

Position	Artist	Song Title
1	Boyz II Men	End Of The Road
2	Sir Mix A-lot	Baby Got Back (I Like Big Butts)
3	Kris Kross	Jump
4	Vanessa Williams	Save The Best For Last
5	TLC	Baby-Baby-Baby
6	Eric Clapton	Tears In Heaven
7	En Vogue	My Lovin' (You're Never Gonna Get It)
8	Red Hot Chili Peppers	Under The Bridge
9	Color Me Badd	All 4 Love
10	Jon Secada	Just Another Day

 

“Baby Got Back” is a massively womanizing song.  The degradation of a female to her body and physical attributes appears more frequently.  This continues on with the lustful trend started by the 1980s.  On the other end of the spectrum are the angst-filled songs, such as “Under the Bridge.”  Emotion is becoming increasingly raw.

As far as sound goes, there’s a greater variety in instruments (the 1990s was notable for its introduction of alternative rock).  Beats aren’t as loud as the 80s, but remain strong.  The biggest change may be the lyrics.  They’re spoken faster.  Notes, instead of being held out, are short and clipped, making the songs choppier. This may have been influenced by the increasing popularity of rap.

Surrounding historical events: Titanic remains are found (1985), Challenger space shuttle explodes (1986), Chernobyl nuclear disaster (1986), Berlin Wall falls (1989), Soviet Union collapses (1991), Operation Desert Storm (1991), Cold War ends (1992).

2002:

Position	Artist	Song Title
1	Nickelback	How You Remind Me
2	Ashanti	Foolish
3	Nelly	Hot in Here
4	Nelly feat. Kelly Rowland	Dilemma
5	The Calling	Wherever you Will Go
6	Vanessa Carlton	A Thousand Miles
7	Linkin Park	In the End
8	Fat Joe feat. Ashanti	What's Luv?
9	Usher	U Got it Bad
10	Puddle Of Mudd	Blurry

 

There’s a stark rise of the presence of bad relationships, vulgarity, sexual tones, and angst.  Usher’s song, “U Got it Bad” drops the f-bomb.  Nelly’s “Hot in Here” has the chorus “It’s getting hot in here, so take off all your clothes.”  There’s also a softer side.  “A Thousand Miles” is a song of devotion, carrying a slow, lullaby-like tune.

Oddly enough, instead of getting faster, beats seemed to slow down in this decade.  The instrumental and tone variation continues, though, as artists search for ways to make their music distinctive.

Surrounding historical events: Titanic the movie released (1997), Princess Diana’s death (1997), Y2K bug scare (1999), Columbine High School shooting (1999), ILOVEYOU computer virus deletes music and pictures off of computers (2000), Wikipedia is released (2001), September 11^th (2001), iPod (2001), Iraq invasion (2003), MySpace (2003), Web 2.0 (2004), Facebook (2004).

 

2012:

Position	Artist	Song Title
1	Gotye feat. Kimbra	Somebody That I Used To Know
2	Carly Rae Jepsen	Call Me Maybe
3	fun. feat. Janelle Monae	We Are Young
4	Maroon 5 feat. Wiz Khalifa	Payphone
5	Ellie Goulding	Lights
6	The Wanted	Glad You Came
7	Kelly Clarkson	Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)
8	Rihanna feat. Calvin Harris	We Found Love
9	Nicki Minaj	Starships
10	One Direction	What Makes You Beautiful

 

The slower beats disappear.  In fact, 2012 seemed to be all about the heavy, striking beats, more similar to the eighties than anything.  On the other hand, the lyrics are spoken fast like the 90s.  The combination creates some serious pop.  It’s all about what you can dance to.

More songs are about hooking up and breaking up.  Others focus on self-empowerment and perseverance.

Surrounding historical events: Hurricane Katrina devastates (2005), Twitter (2006), Saddam Hussein executed (2006), global economic decline (2007), iPhone (2007), iPad (2010), Osama bin Laden killed (2011), Mayan calendar ends and causes apocalypse scare (2012).

 

Through studying these, we can recognize several major trends.

1.      The degrading of love from something deep and moving to superfluous and physical.  As our culture evolves to accept more shameless concepts, so does our music.  (For example, look back and see that, two decades after the birth control pill was approved by the FDA, top songs start including more sexual undertones.)

2.      Stronger language is used, though this is limited by what the radio can air.  As such, I can’t see it progressing too far because a song’s popularity is significantly connected to how many times it plays.

3.      There is precedence in a strong beat.  2012 was especially focused on songs that could be danced to, mainly focusing around the “jump dance,” in which actual choreographic moves are substituted by hopping in place, often with the addition of hand-flailing.

4.       Lately, a lot of synthesized sounds have been added in.  The progression of time has given way to the addition of a variety of noises that would make songs and bands more memorable.

5.      Notes are held for less time.  The music, as a result, turns from serenading to punchy expression.